
Bayesian Probability 101: The Mathematics of Rational Choice
A medical test for a disease is 99% accurate. This means, If you have the disease, the test will say "Positive" 99% of the time. If you don't have the disease, the test will say "Negative" 99% of the time. The result comes back Positive. Should you panic given the fact that 1 in 1000 people actually has the disease?










